Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.76 - $74.45$52.20
Multi-Stage$51.09 - $55.94$53.47
Blended Fair Value$52.83
Current Price$45.82
Upside15.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.57%4.85%1.681.571.541.471.461.411.231.111.061.05
YoY Growth--7.06%1.68%4.95%0.47%3.81%14.49%11.27%4.58%0.66%0.50%
Dividend Yield--4.15%4.08%3.85%3.20%4.21%3.51%2.97%3.25%3.32%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,330.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,004.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)326.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)266.00166.2599.75
Cash Retained (M)326.00326.00326.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-266.00-166.25-99.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)60.00159.75226.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)578.15578.15578.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.741.741.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.280.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.842.012.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Fair Value$37.76$52.20$74.45
Upside / Downside-17.59%13.92%62.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,330.001,370.851,412.961,456.361,501.091,547.201,593.61
Payout Ratio75.49%78.39%81.29%84.20%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,004.001,074.621,148.641,226.191,307.421,392.481,474.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.05%7.05%7.05%
Growth Rate2.07%3.07%4.07%
Year 1 PV (M)994.151,003.891,013.63
Year 2 PV (M)983.041,002.401,021.95
Year 3 PV (M)970.83999.641,029.02
Year 4 PV (M)957.62995.701,034.91
Year 5 PV (M)943.54990.681,039.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,686.5025,919.7027,201.70
Equity Value (M)29,535.6830,912.0132,340.88
Shares Outstanding (M)578.15578.15578.15
Fair Value$51.09$53.47$55.94
Upside / Downside11.49%16.69%22.08%

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