Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp. (ESP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.49 - $62.07$48.37
Multi-Stage$40.74 - $44.46$42.57
Blended Fair Value$45.47
Current Price$39.61
Upside14.79%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.69%4.34%0.940.610.180.000.440.861.720.840.841.03
YoY Growth--54.78%242.98%0.00%-100.00%-49.70%-49.58%103.34%0.96%-18.94%67.62%
Dividend Yield--2.37%2.02%1.10%0.00%2.99%4.55%7.23%2.81%3.71%4.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.741.090.65
Cash Retained (M)4.014.014.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.74-1.09-0.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.262.923.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.701.701.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.061.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.762.92
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Fair Value$37.49$48.37$62.07
Upside / Downside-5.36%22.11%56.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.719.079.449.8210.2210.6310.95
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.60%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.715.556.457.428.469.5710.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.06%4.06%5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)5.005.055.09
Year 2 PV (M)5.235.335.44
Year 3 PV (M)5.425.585.74
Year 4 PV (M)5.565.786.00
Year 5 PV (M)5.665.946.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)85.6289.8694.26
Equity Value (M)112.49117.54122.77
Shares Outstanding (M)2.762.762.76
Fair Value$40.74$42.57$44.46
Upside / Downside2.86%7.47%12.25%

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