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Definitive Analysis

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Dividend 15 Split Corp. II (DF.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$74.00 - $153.38$104.20
Multi-Stage$104.94 - $115.31$110.02
Blended Fair Value$107.11
Current Price$6.06
Upside1,667.53%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.50%3.78%0.610.000.840.490.240.270.350.810.540.65
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%72.74%99.94%-10.98%-20.55%-57.34%51.32%-17.09%52.13%
Dividend Yield--9.32%0.00%17.88%7.82%8.12%5.34%8.64%9.56%7.31%8.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.0512.537.52
Cash Retained (M)85.6285.6285.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.05-12.53-7.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.5773.0978.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23.7823.7823.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.763.073.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.610.610.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.763.073.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.373.693.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate1.78%2.78%3.78%
Fair Value$74.00$104.20$153.38
Upside / Downside1,121.16%1,619.48%2,431.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.24103.02105.88108.82111.84114.95118.40
Payout Ratio14.59%29.67%44.75%59.83%74.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.6230.5647.3865.1183.79103.45109.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.41%6.41%6.41%
Growth Rate1.78%2.78%3.78%
Year 1 PV (M)28.4428.7229.00
Year 2 PV (M)41.0341.8442.66
Year 3 PV (M)52.4754.0355.63
Year 4 PV (M)62.8365.3467.92
Year 5 PV (M)72.1975.8179.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,238.182,350.312,466.90
Equity Value (M)2,495.152,616.062,741.68
Shares Outstanding (M)23.7823.7823.78
Fair Value$104.94$110.02$115.31
Upside / Downside1,631.67%1,715.58%1,802.76%

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