Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ames National Corporation (ATLO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.60 - $33.87$26.50
Multi-Stage$27.77 - $30.41$29.06
Blended Fair Value$27.78
Current Price$20.22
Upside37.41%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.67%3.37%1.021.091.081.051.020.981.210.910.870.81
YoY Growth---6.49%0.38%3.05%3.49%3.27%-18.66%33.33%4.82%6.41%11.43%
Dividend Yield--5.81%5.55%5.21%4.23%3.97%4.81%4.38%3.30%2.83%3.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.212.001.20
Cash Retained (M)8.248.248.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.21-2.00-1.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.036.237.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8.938.938.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.700.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.870.870.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.700.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.571.66
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Fair Value$20.60$26.50$33.87
Upside / Downside1.88%31.08%67.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.0316.4116.8017.1917.6018.0218.56
Payout Ratio48.60%56.88%65.16%73.44%81.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.799.3310.9412.6314.3816.2217.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.44%8.44%8.44%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Year 1 PV (M)8.528.608.69
Year 2 PV (M)9.139.319.49
Year 3 PV (M)9.619.9010.19
Year 4 PV (M)10.0010.4010.81
Year 5 PV (M)10.3010.8111.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)200.30210.37220.85
Equity Value (M)247.86259.40271.39
Shares Outstanding (M)8.938.938.93
Fair Value$27.77$29.06$30.41
Upside / Downside37.34%43.74%50.38%

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