Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yuexiu Services Group Limited (6626.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.77 - $23.71$15.49
Multi-Stage$8.23 - $8.96$8.59
Blended Fair Value$12.04
Current Price$2.63
Upside357.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS82.44%0.00%0.170.180.090.060.000.010.010.000.000.00
YoY Growth---4.41%101.34%50.64%2,242.33%-70.23%29.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.60%7.78%3.07%2.13%0.06%0.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)831.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)535.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)296.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)166.39104.0062.40
Cash Retained (M)296.84296.84296.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-166.39-104.00-62.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)130.45192.85234.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,516.411,516.411,516.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.77$15.49$23.71
Upside / Downside309.41%489.00%801.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)831.96886.04943.631,004.971,070.291,139.861,174.06
Payout Ratio64.32%69.46%74.59%79.73%84.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)535.12615.41703.88801.24908.291,025.881,086.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)555.22560.48565.74
Year 2 PV (M)572.92583.83594.85
Year 3 PV (M)588.38605.27622.48
Year 4 PV (M)601.76624.90648.70
Year 5 PV (M)613.18642.80673.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,545.2110,006.2510,484.93
Equity Value (M)12,476.6613,023.5313,590.25
Shares Outstanding (M)1,516.411,516.411,516.41
Fair Value$8.23$8.59$8.96
Upside / Downside212.84%226.56%240.77%

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