Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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China PengFei Group Limited (3348.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.46 - $3.48$2.97
Multi-Stage$3.81 - $4.17$3.99
Blended Fair Value$3.48
Current Price$0.93
Upside273.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS17.33%0.00%0.090.070.070.080.050.040.370.030.030.00
YoY Growth--15.81%12.12%-17.50%60.00%29.74%-89.58%1,161.23%12.39%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.24%7.93%7.12%9.73%5.08%4.15%35.55%2.96%2.44%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)188.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)79.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)108.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.6423.5314.12
Cash Retained (M)108.36108.36108.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.64-23.53-14.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)70.7284.8494.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.46$2.97$3.48
Upside / Downside164.49%218.82%274.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)188.21186.33184.47182.62180.80178.99184.36
Payout Ratio42.43%51.94%61.46%70.97%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)79.8596.78113.37129.61145.52161.09170.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)87.1087.9988.88
Year 2 PV (M)91.8293.7095.61
Year 3 PV (M)94.4897.40100.38
Year 4 PV (M)95.4699.42103.49
Year 5 PV (M)95.11100.06105.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,439.891,514.871,592.94
Equity Value (M)1,903.861,993.442,086.52
Shares Outstanding (M)500.00500.00500.00
Fair Value$3.81$3.99$4.17
Upside / Downside309.24%328.49%348.50%

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