Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhongsheng Group Holdings Limited (0881.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.86 - $506.94$348.00
Multi-Stage$63.40 - $69.27$66.28
Blended Fair Value$207.14
Current Price$11.04
Upside1,776.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.62%23.86%0.710.970.710.460.380.300.270.230.040.06
YoY Growth---26.96%37.40%55.27%19.36%26.25%10.71%18.89%522.50%-39.97%-26.42%
Dividend Yield--5.41%5.74%1.99%0.92%0.82%1.06%2.00%1.55%0.59%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,232.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,109.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,123.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,246.58779.11467.47
Cash Retained (M)2,123.362,123.362,123.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,246.58-779.11-467.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)876.781,344.251,655.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
LTM Dividend per Share1.681.681.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.550.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.86$348.00$506.94
Upside / Downside1,058.17%3,052.20%4,491.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,232.916,638.057,069.527,529.048,018.438,539.638,795.81
Payout Ratio65.93%70.75%75.56%80.37%85.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,109.554,696.185,341.726,051.336,830.637,685.668,136.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,340.344,381.484,422.62
Year 2 PV (M)4,562.874,649.784,737.51
Year 3 PV (M)4,777.354,914.495,054.23
Year 4 PV (M)4,983.975,175.645,372.78
Year 5 PV (M)5,182.925,433.265,693.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)131,180.03137,516.08144,094.62
Equity Value (M)155,027.49162,070.73169,374.94
Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.222,445.222,445.22
Fair Value$63.40$66.28$69.27
Upside / Downside474.28%500.37%527.43%

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