Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - MortgagesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.93 - $561.53$198.72
Multi-Stage$80.58 - $88.01$84.23
Blended Fair Value$141.47
Current Price$83.62
Upside69.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.92%0.00%2.662.552.411.931.361.120.940.000.000.00
YoY Growth--4.48%5.85%24.35%42.12%21.67%18.53%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.58%3.16%1.49%1.32%2.78%1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0014.378.62
Cash Retained (M)23.8223.8223.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.00-14.37-8.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.829.4415.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.3233.3233.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.280.46
LTM Dividend per Share2.742.742.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.280.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.763.023.19
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Fair Value$110.93$198.72$561.53
Upside / Downside32.66%137.65%571.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.99121.60128.58135.97143.77152.03156.59
Payout Ratio79.29%81.43%83.57%85.72%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.1899.02107.46116.54126.32136.83144.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.35%7.35%7.35%
Growth Rate4.74%5.74%6.74%
Year 1 PV (M)91.3792.2493.11
Year 2 PV (M)91.4993.2595.02
Year 3 PV (M)91.5694.2196.91
Year 4 PV (M)91.5795.1298.77
Year 5 PV (M)91.5295.98100.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,227.442,335.822,448.38
Equity Value (M)2,684.962,806.612,932.79
Shares Outstanding (M)33.3233.3233.32
Fair Value$80.58$84.23$88.01
Upside / Downside-3.64%0.73%5.25%

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