Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (PAGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$245.86 - $1,440.24$452.01
Multi-Stage$144.29 - $157.83$150.94
Blended Fair Value$301.47
Current Price$53.17
Upside467.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.180.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.14%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,215.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)431.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)443.07276.92166.15
Cash Retained (M)1,784.161,784.161,784.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-443.07-276.92-166.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,341.081,507.231,618.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.414.965.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.836.386.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$245.86$452.01$1,440.24
Upside / Downside362.41%750.13%2,608.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,215.362,359.362,512.722,676.042,849.993,035.243,126.29
Payout Ratio19.46%33.57%47.68%61.79%75.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)431.21792.071,198.031,653.412,162.942,731.712,891.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.00%8.00%8.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)726.49733.38740.26
Year 2 PV (M)1,007.851,027.051,046.43
Year 3 PV (M)1,275.781,312.411,349.72
Year 4 PV (M)1,530.751,589.621,650.17
Year 5 PV (M)1,773.211,858.861,947.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)37,516.3639,328.4241,209.82
Equity Value (M)43,830.4445,849.7247,944.18
Shares Outstanding (M)303.77303.77303.77
Fair Value$144.29$150.94$157.83
Upside / Downside171.37%183.87%196.84%

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