Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.22 - $264.45$145.45
Multi-Stage$62.76 - $68.58$65.62
Blended Fair Value$105.53
Current Price$33.98
Upside210.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.46%0.00%0.680.440.430.430.390.320.230.180.150.09
YoY Growth--55.30%2.67%-0.19%8.80%23.74%40.57%25.43%20.36%59.06%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.27%1.68%2.15%1.87%1.77%2.31%1.21%0.75%0.67%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)73.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.619.135.48
Cash Retained (M)54.0254.0254.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.61-9.13-5.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.4144.8948.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.3319.3319.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.042.322.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.042.322.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.023.313.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.22$145.45$264.45
Upside / Downside174.35%328.04%678.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)73.0577.8082.8588.2493.97100.08103.08
Payout Ratio26.05%38.84%51.63%64.42%77.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.0330.2142.7856.8472.5690.0795.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.92%8.92%8.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27.4827.7428.00
Year 2 PV (M)35.3836.0636.74
Year 3 PV (M)42.7643.9945.24
Year 4 PV (M)49.6451.5553.51
Year 5 PV (M)56.0558.7661.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,002.131,050.531,100.79
Equity Value (M)1,213.441,268.621,325.84
Shares Outstanding (M)19.3319.3319.33
Fair Value$62.76$65.62$68.58
Upside / Downside84.71%93.11%101.82%

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