Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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First Interstate BancSystem, Inc. (FIBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$77.56 - $404.95$139.74
Multi-Stage$48.89 - $53.32$51.07
Blended Fair Value$95.40
Current Price$31.87
Upside199.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.86%21.21%1.891.891.760.981.240.770.620.470.380.35
YoY Growth--0.41%7.14%79.23%-21.00%62.37%23.56%31.89%23.35%8.57%26.77%
Dividend Yield--6.61%7.18%5.90%2.67%2.70%2.66%1.53%1.19%0.96%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0830.6818.41
Cash Retained (M)50.2050.2050.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.08-30.68-18.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.1219.5331.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.39103.39103.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.190.31
LTM Dividend per Share1.891.891.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.190.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.902.082.20
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$77.56$139.74$404.95
Upside / Downside143.36%338.46%1,170.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.40261.35278.34296.43315.70336.22346.31
Payout Ratio79.54%81.63%83.73%85.82%87.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.20213.35233.04254.39277.53302.60320.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.08%8.08%8.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)195.54197.40199.25
Year 2 PV (M)195.76199.49203.25
Year 3 PV (M)195.86201.48207.21
Year 4 PV (M)195.83203.37211.11
Year 5 PV (M)195.70205.15214.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,075.944,272.814,477.21
Equity Value (M)5,054.645,279.705,513.01
Shares Outstanding (M)103.39103.39103.39
Fair Value$48.89$51.07$53.32
Upside / Downside53.40%60.23%67.31%

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