Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Elders Limited (ELD.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.12 - $159.44$108.79
Multi-Stage$20.21 - $22.07$21.12
Blended Fair Value$64.95
Current Price$6.71
Upside868.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.28%34.99%0.350.450.450.300.150.120.000.000.000.01
YoY Growth---22.12%-0.56%52.16%92.38%30.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-34.45%
Dividend Yield--4.21%7.91%3.88%2.47%1.45%1.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)130.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.1416.349.80
Cash Retained (M)19.9519.9519.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.14-16.34-9.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-6.193.6210.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.040.020.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.12$108.79$159.44
Upside / Downside497.85%1,521.26%2,276.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)130.70139.19148.24157.88168.14179.07184.44
Payout Ratio84.73%85.79%86.84%87.89%88.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.74119.41128.73138.76149.55161.16170.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)110.36111.40112.45
Year 2 PV (M)109.95112.05114.16
Year 3 PV (M)109.54112.68115.88
Year 4 PV (M)109.10113.30117.62
Year 5 PV (M)108.66113.91119.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,747.432,880.133,017.91
Equity Value (M)3,295.043,443.473,597.38
Shares Outstanding (M)163.02163.02163.02
Fair Value$20.21$21.12$22.07
Upside / Downside201.23%214.80%228.87%

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