Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$488.27 - $1,035.48$693.14
Multi-Stage$363.30 - $396.43$379.57
Blended Fair Value$536.35
Current Price$115.64
Upside363.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%21.05%6.771.885.170.130.030.000.860.000.002.48
YoY Growth--259.57%-63.59%4,024.44%270.28%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%147.27%
Dividend Yield--5.86%2.61%10.85%0.23%0.09%0.00%2.11%0.00%0.00%5.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,269.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)406.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)862.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)253.88158.6895.21
Cash Retained (M)862.72862.72862.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-253.88-158.68-95.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)608.83704.04767.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.7648.7648.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.4914.4415.74
LTM Dividend per Share8.348.348.34
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.4914.4415.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.8322.7824.08
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$488.27$693.14$1,035.48
Upside / Downside322.23%499.40%795.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,269.411,351.921,439.801,533.391,633.061,739.201,791.38
Payout Ratio32.04%43.63%55.22%66.82%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)406.70589.85795.101,024.541,280.441,565.281,657.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)531.19536.23541.26
Year 2 PV (M)644.82657.11669.50
Year 3 PV (M)748.27769.75791.64
Year 4 PV (M)842.17874.56907.87
Year 5 PV (M)927.14971.921,018.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,021.1114,698.3315,401.48
Equity Value (M)17,714.7018,507.8919,330.16
Shares Outstanding (M)48.7648.7648.76
Fair Value$363.30$379.57$396.43
Upside / Downside214.16%228.23%242.81%

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