Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Avnet, Inc. (AVT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Technology DistributorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.42 - $66.57$49.72
Multi-Stage$42.73 - $46.74$44.70
Blended Fair Value$47.21
Current Price$51.94
Upside-9.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.18%2.64%1.311.301.231.140.980.971.011.021.031.03
YoY Growth--1.20%5.30%7.96%16.82%0.40%-3.65%-1.24%-0.45%0.07%1.45%
Dividend Yield--2.53%2.39%2.56%3.16%2.58%3.74%2.29%2.28%2.61%2.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)233.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)46.6029.1317.48
Cash Retained (M)120.09120.09120.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-46.60-29.13-17.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.4990.97102.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)86.3186.3186.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.851.051.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.311.311.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.851.051.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.162.362.50
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Fair Value$37.42$49.72$66.57
Upside / Downside-27.95%-4.28%28.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)233.01241.66250.63259.94269.59279.60287.99
Payout Ratio48.46%56.77%65.08%73.38%81.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.91137.18163.10190.75220.23251.64266.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate2.71%3.71%4.71%
Year 1 PV (M)125.05126.27127.49
Year 2 PV (M)135.54138.19140.86
Year 3 PV (M)144.50148.76153.11
Year 4 PV (M)152.08158.09164.28
Year 5 PV (M)158.41166.27174.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,972.843,120.403,273.77
Equity Value (M)3,688.423,857.994,033.95
Shares Outstanding (M)86.3186.3186.31
Fair Value$42.73$44.70$46.74
Upside / Downside-17.73%-13.94%-10.02%

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