Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huishang Bank Corporation Limited (3698.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.38 - $51.17$38.70
Multi-Stage$34.62 - $37.92$36.24
Blended Fair Value$37.47
Current Price$3.52
Upside964.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.15%4.32%0.240.500.460.420.520.380.360.180.300.16
YoY Growth---52.58%7.39%10.89%-19.18%35.61%5.26%99.41%-39.56%85.34%4.90%
Dividend Yield--10.14%23.07%21.09%19.56%24.09%14.91%12.12%5.59%9.33%6.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,855.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,886.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,968.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,171.023,856.882,314.13
Cash Retained (M)21,968.8521,968.8521,968.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,171.02-3,856.88-2,314.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,797.8318,111.9619,654.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.301.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.781.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Fair Value$29.38$38.70$51.17
Upside / Downside734.61%999.40%1,353.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,855.0831,880.0432,939.0534,033.2435,163.7736,331.8637,421.82
Payout Ratio28.80%41.04%53.28%65.52%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,886.2313,083.5417,549.9022,298.5627,343.3432,698.6834,615.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate2.32%3.32%4.32%
Year 1 PV (M)11,940.6012,057.2912,173.99
Year 2 PV (M)14,617.6014,904.7115,194.62
Year 3 PV (M)16,950.3617,452.2017,963.85
Year 4 PV (M)18,969.4319,721.9320,496.60
Year 5 PV (M)20,703.0121,734.6422,806.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)397,653.10417,468.13438,065.30
Equity Value (M)480,834.09503,338.90526,701.35
Shares Outstanding (M)13,889.8013,889.8013,889.80
Fair Value$34.62$36.24$37.92
Upside / Downside883.46%929.49%977.27%

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