Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited (1798.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$105.94 - $124.82$116.97
Multi-Stage$22.47 - $24.59$23.51
Blended Fair Value$70.24
Current Price$2.23
Upside3,049.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS52.52%49.30%0.170.050.030.030.030.020.020.010.020.02
YoY Growth--230.09%66.67%0.00%0.00%50.00%11.11%50.00%-36.18%17.90%431.60%
Dividend Yield--8.46%3.05%1.47%1.03%2.91%2.83%2.18%1.57%2.96%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,565.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,876.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,688.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)913.01570.63342.38
Cash Retained (M)1,688.991,688.991,688.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-913.01-570.63-342.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)775.981,118.361,346.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,273.707,273.707,273.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.550.58
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$105.94$116.97$124.82
Upside / Downside4,650.69%5,145.32%5,497.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,565.044,861.775,177.785,514.345,872.776,254.506,442.14
Payout Ratio63.00%68.40%73.80%79.20%84.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,876.053,325.523,821.264,367.394,968.395,629.055,958.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,109.943,139.423,168.90
Year 2 PV (M)3,341.903,405.553,469.81
Year 3 PV (M)3,571.933,674.473,778.95
Year 4 PV (M)3,800.053,946.194,096.50
Year 5 PV (M)4,026.274,220.744,422.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)145,585.45152,617.29159,918.24
Equity Value (M)163,435.54171,003.65178,855.05
Shares Outstanding (M)7,273.707,273.707,273.70
Fair Value$22.47$23.51$24.59
Upside / Downside907.60%954.25%1,002.66%

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