Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$327.52 - $1,162.36$542.99
Multi-Stage$208.10 - $227.53$217.64
Blended Fair Value$380.31
Current Price$132.44
Upside187.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.09%19.11%2.121.861.601.461.270.960.750.600.570.44
YoY Growth--13.99%16.15%9.71%14.83%31.92%27.70%25.76%5.12%29.04%19.87%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.80%2.19%1.57%1.67%2.93%1.07%0.70%0.82%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)786.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)621.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)157.2498.2758.96
Cash Retained (M)621.70621.70621.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-157.24-98.27-58.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)464.46523.43562.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)67.6767.6767.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.867.748.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.432.432.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.867.748.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.2910.1710.75
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$327.52$542.99$1,162.36
Upside / Downside147.30%309.99%777.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)786.18837.28891.71949.671,011.401,077.141,109.45
Payout Ratio20.92%34.74%48.55%62.37%76.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.48290.85432.95592.30770.53969.421,026.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.49%8.49%8.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)265.56268.08270.60
Year 2 PV (M)360.94367.81374.75
Year 3 PV (M)450.85463.79476.98
Year 4 PV (M)535.52556.12577.30
Year 5 PV (M)615.18644.89675.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,853.7412,426.2813,020.73
Equity Value (M)14,081.7914,726.9815,396.11
Shares Outstanding (M)67.6767.6767.67
Fair Value$208.10$217.64$227.53
Upside / Downside57.13%64.33%71.79%

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