Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Verizon Communications, 5.9% 15 Feb 2054 (VZA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.52 - $61.39$48.17
Multi-Stage$60.04 - $65.86$62.89
Blended Fair Value$55.53
Current Price$25.55
Upside117.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.35%3.73%1.651.611.581.531.501.471.431.391.361.25
YoY Growth--2.03%2.04%3.45%2.08%2.16%2.50%3.17%2.27%8.48%9.42%
Dividend Yield--6.44%6.31%6.19%5.98%5.86%5.74%5.60%5.24%5.13%4.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22,885.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,419.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,466.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,577.002,860.631,716.38
Cash Retained (M)11,466.0011,466.0011,466.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,577.00-2,860.63-1,716.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,889.008,605.389,749.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
LTM Dividend per Share1.671.671.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.011.261.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.682.933.10
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Fair Value$37.52$48.17$61.39
Upside / Downside46.86%88.55%140.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22,885.0023,193.7423,506.6423,823.7624,145.1624,470.9025,205.02
Payout Ratio49.90%57.92%65.94%73.96%81.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,419.0013,433.3115,499.9017,619.8019,794.0722,023.8123,314.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.51%7.51%7.51%
Growth Rate0.35%1.35%2.35%
Year 1 PV (M)12,371.2712,494.5512,617.84
Year 2 PV (M)13,145.9313,409.2313,675.15
Year 3 PV (M)13,762.4114,177.9614,601.79
Year 4 PV (M)14,238.3514,814.4515,407.85
Year 5 PV (M)14,589.7615,331.3516,102.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)342,204.06359,597.97377,692.10
Equity Value (M)410,311.78429,825.51450,097.51
Shares Outstanding (M)6,834.246,834.246,834.24
Fair Value$60.04$62.89$65.86
Upside / Downside134.98%146.16%157.77%

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