Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Virginia National Bankshares Corporation (VABK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.29 - $124.36$77.22
Multi-Stage$38.45 - $41.92$40.16
Blended Fair Value$58.69
Current Price$38.81
Upside51.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.65%26.53%1.311.311.181.180.600.580.460.260.200.16
YoY Growth--0.18%10.67%-0.25%97.29%3.31%27.49%78.05%26.83%22.56%32.20%
Dividend Yield--3.63%4.48%3.28%3.43%1.98%2.23%1.24%0.65%0.70%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.661.661.00
Cash Retained (M)5.865.865.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.66-1.66-1.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.204.194.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.415.415.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.90
LTM Dividend per Share1.371.371.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.962.152.27
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.29$77.22$124.36
Upside / Downside34.74%98.97%220.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13.2914.1515.0716.0517.0918.2118.75
Payout Ratio55.94%62.75%69.56%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.438.8810.4812.2614.2216.3917.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.46%9.46%9.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8.048.118.19
Year 2 PV (M)8.598.758.91
Year 3 PV (M)9.099.359.61
Year 4 PV (M)9.549.9010.28
Year 5 PV (M)9.9510.4310.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)162.89170.76178.93
Equity Value (M)208.08217.30226.85
Shares Outstanding (M)5.415.415.41
Fair Value$38.45$40.16$41.92
Upside / Downside-0.92%3.47%8.02%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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