Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

United Bancorp, Inc. (UBCP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.92 - $57.90$34.52
Multi-Stage$17.29 - $18.81$18.03
Blended Fair Value$26.27
Current Price$13.98
Upside87.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.65%11.17%0.920.860.820.740.610.580.580.500.460.41
YoY Growth--6.77%5.04%11.17%22.02%4.18%0.16%16.32%9.02%12.44%27.41%
Dividend Yield--6.88%5.79%5.68%4.07%4.24%5.29%5.38%3.86%3.73%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.130.700.42
Cash Retained (M)0.210.210.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.13-0.70-0.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.92-0.50-0.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.545.545.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.980.980.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.17-0.09-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.92$34.52$57.90
Upside / Downside63.95%146.89%314.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.646.006.396.817.257.727.95
Payout Ratio96.30%95.04%93.78%92.52%91.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.435.705.996.306.626.957.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5.175.225.27
Year 2 PV (M)4.935.025.12
Year 3 PV (M)4.704.834.97
Year 4 PV (M)4.474.644.82
Year 5 PV (M)4.264.474.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)72.1775.6579.27
Equity Value (M)95.7099.84104.13
Shares Outstanding (M)5.545.545.54
Fair Value$17.29$18.03$18.81
Upside / Downside23.64%28.99%34.54%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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