Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

CVR Partners, LP (UAN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$250.60 - $592.34$369.32
Multi-Stage$243.14 - $265.63$254.18
Blended Fair Value$311.75
Current Price$90.12
Upside245.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.31%-3.70%6.6926.6219.374.700.004.290.000.216.588.65
YoY Growth---74.87%37.39%312.31%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-96.74%-23.87%-11.34%
Dividend Yield--8.90%33.76%21.73%3.41%0.00%41.62%0.00%0.66%14.16%10.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.4415.909.54
Cash Retained (M)31.1531.1531.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.44-15.90-9.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.7015.2421.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10.5710.5710.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.541.442.04
LTM Dividend per Share9.099.099.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.541.442.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.6310.5311.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate3.81%4.81%5.81%
Fair Value$250.60$369.32$592.34
Upside / Downside178.07%309.81%557.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.22133.34139.75146.48153.52160.90165.73
Payout Ratio75.52%78.41%81.31%84.21%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.08104.56113.64123.34133.72144.81153.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.80%7.80%7.80%
Growth Rate3.81%4.81%5.81%
Year 1 PV (M)96.0797.0097.92
Year 2 PV (M)95.9397.7999.66
Year 3 PV (M)95.6798.47101.31
Year 4 PV (M)95.3099.03102.86
Year 5 PV (M)94.8399.48104.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,092.152,194.882,301.61
Equity Value (M)2,569.962,686.652,807.69
Shares Outstanding (M)10.5710.5710.57
Fair Value$243.14$254.18$265.63
Upside / Downside169.79%182.04%194.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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