Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Thai Stanley Electric Public Company Limited (STANLY.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$192.85 - $288.36$238.20
Multi-Stage$261.43 - $285.79$273.38
Blended Fair Value$255.79
Current Price$182.00
Upside40.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.40%12.81%19.9919.998.505.508.258.247.005.005.004.80
YoY Growth--0.00%135.29%54.55%-33.33%0.08%17.76%40.00%0.07%4.10%-19.88%
Dividend Yield--10.05%9.09%3.93%3.06%4.43%4.86%3.00%1.99%2.22%2.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,739.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)919.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)819.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)347.83217.40130.44
Cash Retained (M)819.67819.67819.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-347.83-217.40-130.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)471.83602.27689.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.6476.6476.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.167.868.99
LTM Dividend per Share12.0012.0012.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.167.868.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend18.1519.8520.99
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$192.85$238.20$288.36
Upside / Downside5.96%30.88%58.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,739.171,765.891,793.021,820.571,848.541,876.941,933.25
Payout Ratio52.87%60.30%67.72%75.15%82.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)919.501,064.761,214.271,368.121,526.411,689.251,788.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)958.43967.96977.50
Year 2 PV (M)983.861,003.531,023.39
Year 3 PV (M)997.821,027.891,058.56
Year 4 PV (M)1,002.091,042.561,084.24
Year 5 PV (M)998.251,048.891,101.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,096.5015,862.3916,659.04
Equity Value (M)20,036.9520,953.2221,904.30
Shares Outstanding (M)76.6476.6476.64
Fair Value$261.43$273.38$285.79
Upside / Downside43.64%50.21%57.03%

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