Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.03 - $41.83$32.42
Multi-Stage$35.61 - $39.07$37.31
Blended Fair Value$34.86
Current Price$18.33
Upside90.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS21.00%11.79%0.530.440.360.290.190.210.170.180.180.18
YoY Growth--20.68%22.24%24.68%55.97%-9.58%19.06%-1.16%-4.16%-0.18%4.33%
Dividend Yield--2.94%1.28%1.56%0.96%0.62%1.84%0.96%1.46%1.44%1.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)57.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)16.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.587.234.34
Cash Retained (M)41.5741.5741.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.58-7.23-4.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.0034.3437.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.5327.5327.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.251.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.251.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.02%2.02%3.02%
Fair Value$25.03$32.42$41.83
Upside / Downside36.54%76.87%128.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)57.8859.0560.2461.4662.7063.9765.89
Payout Ratio28.17%40.54%52.90%65.27%77.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)16.3123.9431.8740.1148.6857.5760.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate1.02%2.02%3.02%
Year 1 PV (M)21.9822.2022.42
Year 2 PV (M)26.8827.4227.96
Year 3 PV (M)31.0832.0132.96
Year 4 PV (M)34.6436.0337.47
Year 5 PV (M)37.6339.5341.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)828.00869.80913.27
Equity Value (M)980.211,026.991,075.58
Shares Outstanding (M)27.5327.5327.53
Fair Value$35.61$37.31$39.07
Upside / Downside94.27%103.54%113.17%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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