Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

ONE Gas, Inc. (OGS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$162.33 - $859.52$322.97
Multi-Stage$98.95 - $108.10$103.44
Blended Fair Value$213.20
Current Price$80.94
Upside163.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.23%13.09%2.542.452.282.111.941.791.641.491.241.07
YoY Growth--3.72%7.57%8.10%8.34%8.49%9.14%9.83%20.14%16.53%43.78%
Dividend Yield--3.36%3.85%2.87%2.39%2.53%2.14%1.86%2.26%1.84%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.9931.8719.12
Cash Retained (M)97.0497.0497.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.99-31.87-19.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0665.1877.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)58.8458.8458.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.781.111.32
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.781.111.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.473.794.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Fair Value$162.33$322.97$859.52
Upside / Downside100.55%299.02%961.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.94270.82287.69305.62324.65344.88355.22
Payout Ratio61.93%67.55%73.16%78.77%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.90182.93210.48240.75273.97310.39328.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate5.23%6.23%7.23%
Year 1 PV (M)168.61170.21171.81
Year 2 PV (M)178.80182.21185.66
Year 3 PV (M)188.49193.92199.45
Year 4 PV (M)197.70205.32213.17
Year 5 PV (M)206.44216.44226.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,881.885,118.295,363.78
Equity Value (M)5,821.926,086.406,360.68
Shares Outstanding (M)58.8458.8458.84
Fair Value$98.95$103.44$108.10
Upside / Downside22.25%27.80%33.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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