Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Northfield Bancorp, Inc. (NFBK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.84 - $46.06$29.07
Multi-Stage$20.37 - $22.29$21.32
Blended Fair Value$25.19
Current Price$11.80
Upside113.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.56%5.41%0.540.560.600.600.530.500.460.390.350.30
YoY Growth---4.25%-5.52%-0.71%13.14%6.33%8.17%19.35%11.17%15.51%-5.43%
Dividend Yield--4.94%5.81%5.06%4.18%3.33%4.46%3.27%2.48%1.93%1.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.894.932.96
Cash Retained (M)18.1418.1418.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.89-4.93-2.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.2513.2115.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.4840.4840.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.330.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Fair Value$19.84$29.07$46.06
Upside / Downside68.16%146.34%290.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.4541.1943.0144.9046.8948.9650.42
Payout Ratio54.01%61.21%68.41%75.61%82.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21.3125.2129.4233.9538.8244.0646.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.48%7.48%7.48%
Growth Rate3.41%4.41%5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)23.2323.4623.68
Year 2 PV (M)24.9825.4725.96
Year 3 PV (M)26.5727.3528.14
Year 4 PV (M)28.0029.1030.23
Year 5 PV (M)29.2830.7332.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)692.60726.74762.22
Equity Value (M)824.67862.84902.46
Shares Outstanding (M)40.4840.4840.48
Fair Value$20.37$21.32$22.29
Upside / Downside72.65%80.64%88.93%

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