Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.04 - $5.90$4.94
Multi-Stage$6.69 - $7.30$6.99
Blended Fair Value$5.96
Current Price$13.96
Upside-57.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.58%2.63%0.520.520.520.500.500.500.490.490.490.40
YoY Growth--0.00%-1.41%4.41%0.00%0.00%1.49%0.75%0.00%23.15%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.36%4.97%3.18%2.91%2.48%3.66%1.94%3.84%4.04%3.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)14.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.861.791.07
Cash Retained (M)0.230.230.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.86-1.79-1.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.63-1.56-0.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.0827.0827.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.06-0.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.10-0.06-0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-1.03%-0.03%0.97%
Fair Value$4.04$4.94$5.90
Upside / Downside-71.08%-64.64%-57.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14.3014.3014.2914.2914.2814.2814.71
Payout Ratio98.38%96.70%95.03%93.35%91.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)14.0713.8213.5813.3413.0912.8513.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-1.03%-0.03%0.97%
Year 1 PV (M)12.5212.6412.77
Year 2 PV (M)11.1411.3611.59
Year 3 PV (M)9.9010.2110.52
Year 4 PV (M)8.809.179.54
Year 5 PV (M)7.828.238.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)130.86137.60144.62
Equity Value (M)181.04189.21197.69
Shares Outstanding (M)27.0827.0827.08
Fair Value$6.69$6.99$7.30
Upside / Downside-52.11%-49.95%-47.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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