Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company

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Industry

Sector

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,316.46 - $3,288.51$2,795.64
Multi-Stage$5,122.13 - $5,624.90$5,368.58
Blended Fair Value$4,082.11
Current Price$1,615.00
Upside152.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.51%-0.18%200.78527.03264.95113.260.00414.83593.16628.30554.00378.33
YoY Growth---61.90%98.92%133.94%0.00%-100.00%-30.06%-5.59%13.41%46.44%85.03%
Dividend Yield--10.43%29.69%5.37%1.83%0.00%31.07%14.76%5.74%4.20%2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)806,534.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)668,184.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)138,350.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)161,306.80100,816.7560,490.05
Cash Retained (M)138,350.00138,350.00138,350.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-161,306.80-100,816.75-60,490.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22,956.8037,533.2577,859.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,250.572,250.572,250.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share-10.2016.6834.60
LTM Dividend per Share296.90296.90296.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share-10.2016.6834.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend286.70313.57331.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Fair Value$2,316.46$2,795.64$3,288.51
Upside / Downside43.43%73.10%103.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)806,534.00781,393.34757,036.35733,438.60710,576.41688,426.87709,079.68
Payout Ratio82.85%84.28%85.71%87.14%88.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)668,184.00658,535.51648,839.29639,107.69629,352.34619,584.18655,898.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate-4.12%-3.12%-2.12%
Year 1 PV (M)604,862.98611,171.34617,479.69
Year 2 PV (M)547,384.83558,862.15570,458.56
Year 3 PV (M)495,230.60510,887.63526,871.23
Year 4 PV (M)447,924.79466,905.49486,483.12
Year 5 PV (M)405,032.04426,598.40449,073.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,027,266.179,507,932.7010,008,859.50
Equity Value (M)11,527,701.4112,082,357.7112,659,225.89
Shares Outstanding (M)2,250.572,250.572,250.57
Fair Value$5,122.13$5,368.58$5,624.90
Upside / Downside217.16%232.42%248.29%

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