Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Endeavour Group Limited (EDV.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.64 - $104.26$97.71
Multi-Stage$16.14 - $17.64$16.87
Blended Fair Value$57.29
Current Price$4.01
Upside1,328.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20252024202320222021202020192018
DPS17.92%0.00%0.200.220.220.200.030.090.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---8.21%-1.02%12.89%571.15%-66.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.99%4.39%3.49%2.58%0.46%1.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)938.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)748.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)190.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)187.60117.2570.35
Cash Retained (M)190.00190.00190.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-187.60-117.25-70.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.4072.75119.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,789.181,789.181,789.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.040.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.64$97.71$104.26
Upside / Downside1,088.12%2,336.64%2,500.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)938.00998.971,063.901,133.061,206.711,285.141,323.70
Payout Ratio79.74%81.80%83.85%85.90%87.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)748.00817.11892.05973.271,061.281,156.631,224.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)760.54767.75774.96
Year 2 PV (M)772.81787.53802.39
Year 3 PV (M)784.81807.34830.30
Year 4 PV (M)796.54827.17858.68
Year 5 PV (M)808.00847.03887.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,946.9826,151.9327,402.99
Equity Value (M)28,869.6930,188.7631,556.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,789.181,789.181,789.18
Fair Value$16.14$16.87$17.64
Upside / Downside302.39%320.77%339.84%

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