Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company

Ticker

Industry

Sector

HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.12 - $42.08$32.57
Multi-Stage$34.13 - $37.26$35.67
Blended Fair Value$34.12
Current Price$52.34
Upside-34.81%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.38%-5.04%2.041.801.360.311.221.191.241.251.241.31
YoY Growth--13.28%33.14%343.83%-74.87%1.92%-3.59%-0.83%0.64%-5.23%-61.85%
Dividend Yield--6.22%2.98%2.80%0.77%3.40%4.86%2.52%2.58%4.37%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)379.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.7049.1929.51
Cash Retained (M)14.0314.0314.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.70-49.19-29.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)-64.67-35.16-15.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.012.012.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.19-0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Fair Value$25.12$32.57$42.08
Upside / Downside-52.01%-37.78%-19.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.49404.34415.49426.95438.72450.81464.34
Payout Ratio96.43%95.15%93.86%92.57%91.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)379.46384.72389.98395.24400.49405.73429.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate1.76%2.76%3.76%
Year 1 PV (M)351.10354.55358.00
Year 2 PV (M)324.80331.21337.69
Year 3 PV (M)300.41309.35318.47
Year 4 PV (M)277.80288.88300.29
Year 5 PV (M)256.84269.71283.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,934.605,181.885,438.97
Equity Value (M)6,445.536,735.577,036.51
Shares Outstanding (M)188.84188.84188.84
Fair Value$34.13$35.67$37.26
Upside / Downside-34.79%-31.85%-28.81%

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