Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CapStar Financial Holdings, Inc. (CSTR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.63 - $97.85$53.97
Multi-Stage$23.46 - $25.62$24.52
Blended Fair Value$39.24
Current Price$18.74
Upside109.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS48.83%0.00%0.430.370.240.190.170.060.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--15.72%54.90%25.58%15.06%181.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.29%2.45%1.14%1.10%1.67%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)29.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.963.732.24
Cash Retained (M)20.7220.7220.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.96-3.73-2.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.7617.0018.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.1721.1721.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.87
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.800.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.131.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.63$53.97$97.85
Upside / Downside84.80%187.99%422.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)29.8031.7433.8036.0038.3440.8342.06
Payout Ratio30.48%42.38%54.29%66.19%78.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.0813.4518.3523.8329.9436.7538.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)12.2312.3512.47
Year 2 PV (M)15.1815.4715.76
Year 3 PV (M)17.9218.4418.96
Year 4 PV (M)20.4821.2722.08
Year 5 PV (M)22.8623.9625.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)408.03427.74448.20
Equity Value (M)496.70519.22542.57
Shares Outstanding (M)21.1721.1721.17
Fair Value$23.46$24.52$25.62
Upside / Downside25.17%30.85%36.73%

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