Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company

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Industry

Sector

PT Bank CIMB Niaga Tbk (BNGA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,144.93 - $3,153.92$2,629.79
Multi-Stage$3,937.24 - $4,321.26$4,125.54
Blended Fair Value$3,377.66
Current Price$1,695.00
Upside99.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.85%0.00%123.55114.2493.3143.7055.3827.7023.680.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.15%22.43%113.52%-21.09%99.88%16.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.29%5.34%7.35%3.92%5.57%4.50%2.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,961,315.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,965,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,996,254.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,392,263.00870,164.38522,098.63
Cash Retained (M)2,996,254.002,996,254.002,996,254.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,392,263.00-870,164.38-522,098.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,603,991.002,126,089.632,474,155.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)25,139.5125,139.5125,139.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share63.8084.5798.42
LTM Dividend per Share157.72157.72157.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share63.8084.5798.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend221.53242.29256.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2,144.93$2,629.79$3,153.92
Upside / Downside26.54%55.15%86.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,961,315.006,891,701.856,822,784.836,754,556.986,687,011.416,620,141.306,818,745.54
Payout Ratio56.96%63.57%70.18%76.78%83.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,965,061.004,380,834.654,787,896.315,186,378.665,576,412.575,958,127.176,307,339.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.12%8.12%8.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,010,850.224,051,777.264,092,704.31
Year 2 PV (M)4,013,321.054,095,643.444,178,801.59
Year 3 PV (M)3,980,182.374,103,272.204,228,873.99
Year 4 PV (M)3,918,079.384,080,465.464,247,847.61
Year 5 PV (M)3,832,725.224,032,304.124,240,111.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,225,153.7983,350,591.3787,646,123.50
Equity Value (M)98,980,312.03103,714,053.85108,634,462.78
Shares Outstanding (M)25,139.5125,139.5125,139.51
Fair Value$3,937.24$4,125.54$4,321.26
Upside / Downside132.29%143.39%154.94%

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