Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Australian Clinical Labs Limited (ACL.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.56 - $3.90$3.18
Multi-Stage$5.59 - $6.14$5.86
Blended Fair Value$4.52
Current Price$2.78
Upside62.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.130.100.500.120.220.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.05%-79.41%300.03%-42.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.60%4.07%14.43%2.70%6.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)44.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.277.054.23
Cash Retained (M)11.4711.4711.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.27-7.05-4.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.204.427.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)195.19195.19195.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.56$3.18$3.90
Upside / Downside-8.02%14.57%40.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.3655.8055.2454.6954.1453.6055.21
Payout Ratio79.65%81.72%83.79%85.86%87.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)44.9045.6046.2946.9647.6148.2451.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)42.2442.6843.11
Year 2 PV (M)39.7340.5441.36
Year 3 PV (M)37.3338.4939.67
Year 4 PV (M)35.0736.5238.02
Year 5 PV (M)32.9234.6336.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)904.26951.351,000.38
Equity Value (M)1,091.551,144.211,198.95
Shares Outstanding (M)195.19195.19195.19
Fair Value$5.59$5.86$6.14
Upside / Downside101.16%110.86%120.95%

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