Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Q P Group Holdings Limited (1412.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.63 - $3.73$3.17
Multi-Stage$4.33 - $4.74$4.53
Blended Fair Value$3.85
Current Price$1.50
Upside156.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.130.140.140.110.020.020.030.060.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-7.14%0.00%27.27%485.20%0.00%-33.33%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%10.48%10.29%11.38%12.09%1.71%1.71%0.00%5.13%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)209.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)54.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.8426.1515.69
Cash Retained (M)54.9454.9454.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.84-26.15-15.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.0928.7839.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.63$3.17$3.73
Upside / Downside75.08%111.45%148.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)209.22207.12205.05203.00200.97198.96204.93
Payout Ratio73.74%76.99%80.25%83.50%86.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.28159.47164.54169.50174.34179.07189.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)143.85145.32146.79
Year 2 PV (M)133.89136.63139.41
Year 3 PV (M)124.41128.25132.18
Year 4 PV (M)115.42120.21125.14
Year 5 PV (M)106.94112.51118.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,679.531,766.991,858.05
Equity Value (M)2,304.042,409.912,519.87
Shares Outstanding (M)532.00532.00532.00
Fair Value$4.33$4.53$4.74
Upside / Downside188.73%201.99%215.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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