Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Industrial Holdings Limited (0363.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.41 - $81.92$66.00
Multi-Stage$109.86 - $120.91$115.28
Blended Fair Value$90.64
Current Price$13.56
Upside568.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.57%0.48%0.940.920.961.000.740.520.960.990.961.05
YoY Growth--2.17%-4.17%-4.00%35.14%42.31%-45.83%-2.81%3.11%-9.10%17.58%
Dividend Yield--7.94%9.49%9.95%8.80%6.98%3.47%6.06%4.37%4.56%5.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,897.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,064.29
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,833.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,179.49737.18442.31
Cash Retained (M)3,833.163,833.163,833.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,179.49-737.18-442.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,653.673,095.983,390.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.211,087.211,087.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.442.853.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.901.901.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.442.853.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.755.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Fair Value$52.41$66.00$81.92
Upside / Downside286.48%386.69%504.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,897.455,866.605,835.925,805.405,775.045,744.835,917.18
Payout Ratio35.00%46.00%57.00%68.00%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,064.292,698.783,326.583,947.744,562.315,170.355,473.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.63%6.63%6.63%
Growth Rate-1.52%-0.52%0.48%
Year 1 PV (M)2,505.502,530.952,556.39
Year 2 PV (M)2,867.172,925.692,984.81
Year 3 PV (M)3,158.873,256.083,355.26
Year 4 PV (M)3,389.183,528.963,673.01
Year 5 PV (M)3,565.803,750.573,942.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,952.26109,338.55114,945.82
Equity Value (M)119,438.79125,330.79131,458.21
Shares Outstanding (M)1,087.211,087.211,087.21
Fair Value$109.86$115.28$120.91
Upside / Downside710.16%750.13%791.69%

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