Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xingfa Aluminium Holdings Limited (0098.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$130.87 - $752.77$239.86
Multi-Stage$77.75 - $85.00$81.31
Blended Fair Value$160.58
Current Price$7.40
Upside2,070.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.30%30.93%0.580.340.680.290.250.170.170.000.080.07
YoY Growth--74.15%-50.58%130.86%15.65%45.52%4.23%0.00%-100.00%5.78%81.69%
Dividend Yield--8.89%6.01%8.83%4.91%4.14%2.38%3.93%0.00%2.48%3.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,640.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)491.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,149.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)328.10205.06123.04
Cash Retained (M)1,149.341,149.341,149.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-328.10-205.06-123.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)821.25944.281,026.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)420.65420.65420.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.952.242.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.952.242.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.123.413.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$130.87$239.86$752.77
Upside / Downside1,668.47%3,141.30%10,072.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,640.481,747.121,860.681,981.622,110.432,247.612,315.03
Payout Ratio29.94%41.95%53.96%65.98%77.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)491.14732.931,004.081,307.381,645.872,022.842,141.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)672.17678.55684.92
Year 2 PV (M)844.51860.60876.83
Year 3 PV (M)1,008.461,037.411,066.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,164.311,209.091,255.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,312.361,375.751,441.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,701.6129,039.6130,428.81
Equity Value (M)32,703.4334,200.9935,754.18
Shares Outstanding (M)420.65420.65420.65
Fair Value$77.75$81.31$85.00
Upside / Downside950.61%998.72%1,048.62%

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