Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

UGI Corporation (UGI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.14 - $57.70$45.19
Multi-Stage$58.57 - $64.29$61.38
Blended Fair Value$53.28
Current Price$33.26
Upside60.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.36%-2.20%1.481.461.411.361.301.252.132.021.981.92
YoY Growth--1.26%3.25%4.05%4.96%3.30%-41.04%5.23%2.21%2.99%3.88%
Dividend Yield--4.45%5.17%5.75%3.67%2.82%3.59%4.71%3.79%4.21%4.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)678.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)321.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)357.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)135.6084.7550.85
Cash Retained (M)357.00357.00357.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-135.60-84.75-50.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)221.40272.25306.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.71217.71217.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.251.41
LTM Dividend per Share1.471.471.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.251.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.492.732.88
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Fair Value$35.14$45.19$57.70
Upside / Downside5.66%35.86%73.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)678.00685.87693.84701.90710.05718.30739.84
Payout Ratio47.35%55.88%64.41%72.94%81.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)321.00383.24446.88511.95578.47646.47684.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)353.76357.29360.82
Year 2 PV (M)380.78388.42396.14
Year 3 PV (M)402.67414.85427.27
Year 4 PV (M)419.99437.01454.55
Year 5 PV (M)433.25455.32478.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,761.1511,309.1711,879.30
Equity Value (M)12,751.6013,362.0713,996.36
Shares Outstanding (M)217.71217.71217.71
Fair Value$58.57$61.38$64.29
Upside / Downside76.11%84.54%93.30%

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