Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Embelton Limited (EMB.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.78 - $8.02$6.91
Multi-Stage$11.52 - $12.65$12.08
Blended Fair Value$9.49
Current Price$8.33
Upside13.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.64%1.06%0.350.350.300.350.400.400.500.470.460.36
YoY Growth---0.03%16.67%-14.29%-12.50%0.00%-20.00%6.38%2.17%29.58%12.70%
Dividend Yield--4.21%3.70%2.86%3.51%3.31%4.01%4.77%3.37%3.84%4.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.440.270.16
Cash Retained (M)0.680.680.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.44-0.27-0.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.240.400.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.152.152.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.190.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.810.890.94
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Fair Value$5.78$6.91$8.02
Upside / Downside-30.60%-17.11%-3.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.192.112.031.961.881.821.87
Payout Ratio69.10%73.28%77.46%81.64%85.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.511.541.571.601.621.631.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-4.64%-3.64%-2.64%
Year 1 PV (M)1.401.421.43
Year 2 PV (M)1.301.331.36
Year 3 PV (M)1.201.241.28
Year 4 PV (M)1.111.161.20
Year 5 PV (M)1.021.071.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)18.7919.7920.84
Equity Value (M)24.8226.0127.25
Shares Outstanding (M)2.152.152.15
Fair Value$11.52$12.08$12.65
Upside / Downside38.34%44.96%51.85%

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