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Definitive Analysis

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public stock company VSMPO-AVISMA Corporation (VSMO.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,963.31 - $17,304.79$14,560.40
Multi-Stage$19,019.95 - $20,941.20$19,961.75
Blended Fair Value$17,261.08
Current Price$28,800.00
Upside-40.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202020192018201720162015201420132012
DPS-15.11%0.00%562.702.631,765.961,647.922,064.161,276.491,620.51575.97251.3114.26
YoY Growth--21,284.59%-99.85%7.16%-20.16%61.71%-21.23%181.36%129.18%1,662.72%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.01%8.68%10.62%12.21%9.20%13.11%6.91%3.32%0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,050.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)19,048.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,810.092,381.301,428.78
Cash Retained (M)19,048.5719,048.5719,048.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,810.09-2,381.30-1,428.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)15,238.4916,667.2717,619.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.5111.5111.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,324.311,448.481,531.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,324.311,448.481,531.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend1,324.471,448.641,531.42
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11,963.31$14,560.40$17,304.79
Upside / Downside-58.46%-49.44%-39.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,050.4318,859.9318,671.3318,484.6118,299.7718,116.7718,660.27
Payout Ratio0.01%18.01%36.01%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.863,396.266,722.779,982.4113,176.1916,305.0917,260.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,088.623,120.143,151.65
Year 2 PV (M)5,560.015,674.065,789.27
Year 3 PV (M)7,508.047,740.237,977.16
Year 4 PV (M)9,012.489,386.019,771.02
Year 5 PV (M)10,142.4210,670.5611,220.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)183,545.63193,103.28203,054.99
Equity Value (M)218,857.20229,694.27240,964.57
Shares Outstanding (M)11.5111.5111.51
Fair Value$19,019.95$19,961.75$20,941.20
Upside / Downside-33.96%-30.69%-27.29%

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