Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$547.89 - $1,187.98$1,113.31
Multi-Stage$181.41 - $198.45$189.77
Blended Fair Value$651.54
Current Price$156.80
Upside315.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.46%13.60%2.932.682.422.162.021.781.641.421.160.88
YoY Growth--9.40%10.50%12.02%6.83%13.66%8.60%15.59%22.73%31.45%7.51%
Dividend Yield--1.63%2.23%1.84%1.58%1.42%1.88%2.13%2.47%1.70%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,160.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,187.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)973.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.00270.00162.00
Cash Retained (M)973.00973.00973.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.00-270.00-162.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)541.00703.00811.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)361.60361.60361.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.942.24
LTM Dividend per Share3.283.283.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.942.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.785.235.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$547.89$1,113.31$1,187.98
Upside / Downside249.42%610.02%657.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,160.002,300.402,449.932,609.172,778.772,959.393,048.17
Payout Ratio54.95%61.96%68.97%75.98%82.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,187.001,425.401,689.771,982.492,306.122,663.452,819.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,326.831,339.401,351.98
Year 2 PV (M)1,464.151,492.041,520.19
Year 3 PV (M)1,598.991,644.901,691.67
Year 4 PV (M)1,731.401,797.981,866.47
Year 5 PV (M)1,861.391,951.302,044.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,613.4660,396.2163,285.46
Equity Value (M)65,596.2268,621.8371,760.41
Shares Outstanding (M)361.60361.60361.60
Fair Value$181.41$189.77$198.45
Upside / Downside15.69%21.03%26.56%

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