Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Pecos Hotels and Pubs Limited (PECOS.BO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,346.85 - $4,031.10$3,777.73
Multi-Stage$547.55 - $599.26$572.93
Blended Fair Value$2,175.33
Current Price$297.00
Upside632.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS20.00%0.00%3.003.000.000.000.001.210.400.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%199.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.15%2.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.01%0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.313.321.99
Cash Retained (M)18.0418.0418.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.31-3.32-1.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.7314.7216.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.311.311.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share9.7211.2412.25
LTM Dividend per Share6.506.506.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share9.7211.2412.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.2217.7418.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,346.85$3,777.73$4,031.10
Upside / Downside353.48%1,171.96%1,257.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.5528.2830.1232.0834.1636.3837.47
Payout Ratio32.07%43.65%55.24%66.83%78.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.5212.3516.6421.4326.7932.7434.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.77%6.77%6.77%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11.4511.5611.67
Year 2 PV (M)14.3214.5914.87
Year 3 PV (M)17.1217.6118.11
Year 4 PV (M)19.8520.6121.40
Year 5 PV (M)22.5123.6024.73
PV of Terminal Value (M)632.05662.57694.27
Equity Value (M)717.30750.55785.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1.311.311.31
Fair Value$547.55$572.93$599.26
Upside / Downside84.36%92.91%101.77%

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