DDM Analysis: PAAS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.49 - $33.56	$26.31
Multi-Stage	$16.76 - $18.26	$17.50
Blended Fair Value	$21.91
Current Price	$28.40
Upside	-22.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	37.74%	6.74%	0.40	0.36	0.26	0.20	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	11.50%	37.70%	32.45%	54.68%	57.59%	37.81%	38.98%	101.34%	-81.76%	-44.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.54%	2.33%	1.42%	0.71%	0.42%	0.56%	0.45%	0.26%	0.12%	1.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	634.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	152.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	482.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	126.82	79.26	47.56
Cash Retained (M)	482.00	482.00	482.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-126.82	-79.26	-47.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	355.18	402.74	434.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	366.65	366.65	366.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.97	1.10	1.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.97	1.10	1.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.38	1.51	1.60
WACC / Discount Rate	12.62%	12.62%	12.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.49	$26.31	$33.56
Upside / Downside	-27.86%	-7.34%	18.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	634.10	675.32	719.21	765.96	815.75	868.77	894.84
Payout Ratio	23.99%	37.19%	50.39%	63.59%	76.80%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	152.10	251.15	362.43	487.11	626.47	781.89	827.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	12.62%	12.62%	12.62%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	220.90	222.99	225.09
Year 2 PV (M)	280.39	285.73	291.12
Year 3 PV (M)	331.47	340.98	350.68
Year 4 PV (M)	374.96	389.38	404.21
Year 5 PV (M)	411.62	431.50	452.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,527.52	4,746.20	4,973.25
Equity Value (M)	6,146.86	6,416.79	6,696.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	366.65	366.65	366.65
Fair Value	$16.76	$17.50	$18.26
Upside / Downside	-40.97%	-38.38%	-35.69%

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Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener