DDM Analysis: ONEX.TO

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.56 - $28.37	$25.12
Multi-Stage	$53.10 - $59.06	$56.02
Blended Fair Value	$40.57
Current Price	$82.34
Upside	-50.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.86%	3.07%	0.32	0.34	0.36	0.39	0.41	0.39	0.35	0.31	0.28	0.27
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.17%	-7.69%	-7.14%	-3.45%	3.57%	12.00%	13.64%	10.00%	5.26%	11.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.48%	0.45%	0.78%	0.58%	0.65%	1.07%	0.61%	0.43%	0.39%	0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	434.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	21.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	413.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	86.80	54.25	32.55
Cash Retained (M)	413.00	413.00	413.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-86.80	-54.25	-32.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	326.20	358.75	380.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	71.50	71.50	71.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.56	5.02	5.32
LTM Dividend per Share	0.29	0.29	0.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.56	5.02	5.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.86	5.31	5.61
WACC / Discount Rate	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%
Growth Rate	-12.10%	-11.10%	-10.10%
Fair Value	$21.56	$25.12	$28.37
Upside / Downside	-73.81%	-69.49%	-65.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	434.00	385.81	342.98	304.89	271.04	240.95	248.18
Payout Ratio	4.84%	21.87%	38.90%	55.94%	72.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	21.00	84.38	133.43	170.54	197.77	216.85	229.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%
Growth Rate	-12.10%	-11.10%	-10.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	77.47	78.35	79.24
Year 2 PV (M)	112.48	115.05	117.65
Year 3 PV (M)	132.00	136.55	141.21
Year 4 PV (M)	140.54	147.04	153.77
Year 5 PV (M)	141.48	149.72	158.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,192.73	3,378.53	3,572.88
Equity Value (M)	3,796.70	4,005.25	4,223.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	71.50	71.50	71.50
Fair Value	$53.10	$56.02	$59.06
Upside / Downside	-35.51%	-31.97%	-28.27%

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Onex Corporation (ONEX.TO)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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