Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Naspers Limited (NPN.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.86 - $41.23$31.33
Multi-Stage$22.80 - $24.96$23.86
Blended Fair Value$27.59
Current Price$71.93
Upside-61.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.62%5.60%0.060.040.040.050.050.050.040.040.040.03
YoY Growth--31.66%4.19%-19.75%9.17%4.31%5.03%7.57%13.50%16.43%-7.89%
Dividend Yield--0.12%0.13%0.12%0.23%0.10%0.16%0.14%0.13%0.16%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,097.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)461.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,636.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,619.401,012.13607.28
Cash Retained (M)7,636.007,636.007,636.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,619.40-1,012.13-607.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,016.606,623.887,028.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,470.184,470.184,470.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.351.481.57
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.351.481.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.581.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Fair Value$23.86$31.33$41.23
Upside / Downside-66.83%-56.44%-42.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,097.008,469.108,858.319,265.409,691.2010,136.5710,440.67
Payout Ratio5.69%22.55%39.42%56.28%73.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)461.001,910.193,491.605,214.337,088.029,122.919,657.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.89%9.89%9.89%
Growth Rate3.60%4.60%5.60%
Year 1 PV (M)1,721.701,738.321,754.94
Year 2 PV (M)2,836.542,891.572,947.12
Year 3 PV (M)3,818.083,929.724,043.51
Year 4 PV (M)4,677.944,861.195,049.78
Year 5 PV (M)5,426.825,693.855,971.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,418.9787,523.6491,788.32
Equity Value (M)101,900.06106,638.29111,554.96
Shares Outstanding (M)4,470.184,470.184,470.18
Fair Value$22.80$23.86$24.96
Upside / Downside-68.31%-66.84%-65.31%

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