Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Loxley Public Company Limited (LOXLEY.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.64 - $0.94$0.79
Multi-Stage$1.72 - $1.90$1.81
Blended Fair Value$1.30
Current Price$1.56
Upside-16.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-2.28%0.070.000.070.000.000.000.070.070.050.10
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%40.00%-50.00%13.53%
Dividend Yield--6.08%0.00%3.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.44%2.96%1.52%3.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)208.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)68.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.6326.0215.61
Cash Retained (M)140.08140.08140.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.63-26.02-15.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)98.45114.06124.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,327.322,327.322,327.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.28%-3.28%-2.28%
Fair Value$0.64$0.79$0.94
Upside / Downside-58.66%-49.56%-39.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)208.16201.34194.74188.36182.19176.22181.51
Payout Ratio32.70%44.16%55.62%67.08%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)68.0788.92108.32126.36143.09158.60167.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.28%-3.28%-2.28%
Year 1 PV (M)82.7583.6184.48
Year 2 PV (M)93.8195.7897.77
Year 3 PV (M)101.84105.06108.36
Year 4 PV (M)107.33111.88116.58
Year 5 PV (M)110.70116.61122.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,504.053,690.943,885.72
Equity Value (M)4,000.474,203.894,415.67
Shares Outstanding (M)2,327.322,327.322,327.32
Fair Value$1.72$1.81$1.90
Upside / Downside10.19%15.79%21.62%

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