Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kingspan Group plc (KGP.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$104.95 - $205.90$144.80
Multi-Stage$78.33 - $85.55$81.87
Blended Fair Value$113.34
Current Price$72.20
Upside56.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.48%14.34%0.530.500.510.400.000.420.370.340.260.17
YoY Growth--5.92%-2.67%27.48%0.00%-100.00%13.62%10.70%28.54%50.94%25.69%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.63%1.01%0.38%0.00%0.78%0.99%0.91%1.01%0.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,143.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)146.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)997.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228.79142.9985.80
Cash Retained (M)997.45997.45997.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-228.79-142.99-85.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)768.66854.46911.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)183.74183.74183.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.184.654.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.800.800.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.184.654.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.985.455.76
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$104.95$144.80$205.90
Upside / Downside45.36%100.55%185.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,143.951,218.311,297.501,381.831,471.651,567.311,614.33
Payout Ratio12.81%28.25%43.68%59.12%74.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)146.50344.11566.80816.981,097.281,410.581,493.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.51%10.51%10.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)308.47311.40314.32
Year 2 PV (M)455.47464.14472.90
Year 3 PV (M)588.51605.40622.61
Year 4 PV (M)708.56735.81763.83
Year 5 PV (M)816.52855.96896.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,514.6012,070.7612,648.21
Equity Value (M)14,392.1215,043.4615,718.78
Shares Outstanding (M)183.74183.74183.74
Fair Value$78.33$81.87$85.55
Upside / Downside8.49%13.40%18.49%

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