DDM Analysis: GBF.DE

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$74.89 - $141.30	$101.81
Multi-Stage	$122.61 - $134.57	$128.48
Blended Fair Value	$115.14
Current Price	$81.65
Upside	41.02%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.87%	-6.52%	1.79	1.29	5.15	2.09	0.19	1.07	1.12	1.17	0.00	2.35
YoY Growth	-	-	38.89%	-74.91%	146.75%	975.34%	-81.89%	-4.05%	-4.98%	0.00%	-100.00%	-33.23%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.71%	3.01%	13.17%	6.04%	0.62%	6.97%	3.53%	3.17%	0.00%	6.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	185.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	107.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)	78.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.16	23.23	13.94
Cash Retained (M)	78.10	78.10	78.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.16	-23.23	-13.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	40.94	54.88	64.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	37.63	37.63	37.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.46	1.71
LTM Dividend per Share	2.86	2.86	2.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.09	1.46	1.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.95	4.32	4.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.09%	2.09%	3.09%
Fair Value	$74.89	$101.81	$141.30
Upside / Downside	-8.28%	24.69%	73.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	185.80	189.68	193.64	197.68	201.81	206.02	212.20
Payout Ratio	57.97%	64.37%	70.78%	77.19%	83.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	107.70	122.10	137.06	152.58	168.70	185.42	196.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	1.09%	2.09%	3.09%
Year 1 PV (M)	113.61	114.73	115.86
Year 2 PV (M)	118.66	121.02	123.40
Year 3 PV (M)	122.92	126.60	130.36
Year 4 PV (M)	126.45	131.53	136.76
Year 5 PV (M)	129.32	135.84	142.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,002.66	4,204.60	4,414.60
Equity Value (M)	4,613.62	4,834.33	5,063.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	37.63	37.63	37.63
Fair Value	$122.61	$128.48	$134.57
Upside / Downside	50.17%	57.35%	64.81%

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Bilfinger SE (GBF.DE)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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