DDM Analysis: FRES.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.84 - $50.82	$31.03
Multi-Stage	$15.69 - $17.08	$16.37
Blended Fair Value	$23.70
Current Price	$19.77
Upside	19.87%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-11.28%	-1.06%	0.11	0.15	0.27	0.33	0.14	0.19	0.40	0.32	0.12	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-27.87%	-46.35%	-17.76%	134.57%	-26.37%	-52.30%	26.00%	168.15%	135.07%	-56.84%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.36%	2.02%	2.51%	2.76%	0.92%	2.28%	3.69%	1.66%	0.80%	0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	703.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	589.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	114.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	140.78	87.99	52.79
Cash Retained (M)	114.40	114.40	114.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-140.78	-87.99	-52.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-26.37	26.42	61.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	736.89	736.89	736.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.04	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.80	0.80	0.80
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.04	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.76	0.84	0.88
WACC / Discount Rate	9.37%	9.37%	9.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$20.84	$31.03	$50.82
Upside / Downside	5.40%	56.94%	157.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	703.88	749.63	798.36	850.25	905.52	964.38	993.31
Payout Ratio	83.75%	85.00%	86.25%	87.50%	88.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	589.48	637.17	688.57	743.96	803.64	867.94	918.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.37%	9.37%	9.37%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	577.12	582.59	588.06
Year 2 PV (M)	564.89	575.65	586.51
Year 3 PV (M)	552.81	568.68	584.85
Year 4 PV (M)	540.88	561.68	583.07
Year 5 PV (M)	529.10	554.65	581.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,794.41	9,219.19	9,660.22
Equity Value (M)	11,559.21	12,062.44	12,583.90
Shares Outstanding (M)	736.89	736.89	736.89
Fair Value	$15.69	$16.37	$17.08
Upside / Downside	-20.66%	-17.20%	-13.62%

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Fresnillo plc (FRES.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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