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Definitive Analysis

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ECSC Group plc (ECSC.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.56 - $60.31$49.98
Multi-Stage$75.10 - $82.64$78.80
Blended Fair Value$64.39
Current Price$0.53
Upside12,164.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20212020201920182017201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-9.23%27.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%0.06%0.05%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)996.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)776.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)199.34124.5874.75
Cash Retained (M)776.37776.37776.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-199.34-124.58-74.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)577.03651.78701.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.92198.92198.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.903.283.53
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.903.283.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.014.384.63
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$40.56$49.98$60.31
Upside / Downside7,625.76%9,419.19%11,387.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)996.68986.71976.84967.08957.40947.83976.27
Payout Ratio22.10%35.68%49.26%62.84%76.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.31352.09481.22607.73731.66853.05903.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)323.66326.97330.27
Year 2 PV (M)406.65414.99423.41
Year 3 PV (M)472.08486.68501.58
Year 4 PV (M)522.46544.12566.44
Year 5 PV (M)559.96589.12619.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,653.6313,312.5313,998.60
Equity Value (M)14,938.4515,674.4116,439.78
Shares Outstanding (M)198.92198.92198.92
Fair Value$75.10$78.80$82.64
Upside / Downside14,204.11%14,908.82%15,641.70%

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