Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Card Factory plc (CARD.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.85 - $2.71$2.26
Multi-Stage$3.00 - $3.30$3.15
Blended Fair Value$2.70
Current Price$0.95
Upside184.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-16.54%0.00%0.060.000.000.000.000.140.140.240.230.24
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-41.01%2.22%-2.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%15.82%7.79%12.31%9.30%6.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7410.466.28
Cash Retained (M)51.3051.3051.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.74-10.46-6.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)34.5640.8445.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)348.93348.93348.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate-1.42%-0.42%0.58%
Fair Value$1.85$2.26$2.71
Upside / Downside94.41%138.04%185.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.7083.3582.9982.6482.2981.9484.40
Payout Ratio38.71%48.97%59.23%69.48%79.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.4040.8149.1557.4265.6273.7578.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.82%8.82%8.82%
Growth Rate-1.42%-0.42%0.58%
Year 1 PV (M)37.1337.5037.88
Year 2 PV (M)40.6841.5142.35
Year 3 PV (M)43.2344.5645.92
Year 4 PV (M)44.9546.8048.71
Year 5 PV (M)45.9548.3350.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)835.98879.25924.29
Equity Value (M)1,047.921,097.951,149.95
Shares Outstanding (M)348.93348.93348.93
Fair Value$3.00$3.15$3.30
Upside / Downside216.13%231.22%246.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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