Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Bank Mestika Dharma Tbk (BBMD.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,236.73 - $2,271.74$1,663.96
Multi-Stage$1,788.11 - $1,961.90$1,873.35
Blended Fair Value$1,768.66
Current Price$2,120.00
Upside-16.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%5.60%34.2534.2534.2429.770.000.0014.8914.8914.8912.40
YoY Growth--0.00%0.03%15.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%20.05%-37.53%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.70%1.75%1.45%0.00%0.00%1.08%1.06%0.96%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)342,869.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)137,997.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)204,871.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,573.8942,858.6825,715.21
Cash Retained (M)204,871.93204,871.93204,871.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,573.89-42,858.68-25,715.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)136,298.04162,013.25179,156.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
LTM Dividend per Share34.2534.2534.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.8340.2144.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend68.0874.4678.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$1,236.73$1,663.96$2,271.74
Upside / Downside-41.66%-21.51%7.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)342,869.45351,269.54359,875.43368,692.15377,724.88386,978.91398,588.27
Payout Ratio40.25%50.20%60.15%70.10%80.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)137,997.52176,331.21216,460.39258,450.00302,367.13348,281.02368,694.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)163,134.44164,742.47166,350.50
Year 2 PV (M)185,272.66188,943.16192,649.66
Year 3 PV (M)204,656.67210,768.48217,000.76
Year 4 PV (M)221,513.61230,377.50239,504.79
Year 5 PV (M)236,054.40247,920.06260,258.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,193,882.926,505,228.586,828,970.48
Equity Value (M)7,204,514.707,547,980.257,904,734.34
Shares Outstanding (M)4,029.134,029.134,029.13
Fair Value$1,788.11$1,873.35$1,961.90
Upside / Downside-15.66%-11.63%-7.46%

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